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George
Slezak's www. Stock Index Timing .com Index
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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE |
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on August 21, 2007. ----------------- From Stock Index Timing .com In my commentary this week at Stock Index Timing .com I pointed out to my subscribers the similarity of the current market pattern to the pattern of the market after the tops in 1937 and 1973. The comparison to the 1937 peak and the 1973 peak is interesting both from the short term pattern comparison, and like 2007 being seven years after the year 200 peak, the 1937 and 1973 market peaks about seven years after major bull run market peaks of 1929 and 1966. The following chart is a LONG TERM comparison matching the current market top to the market top in 1937 and the market top in 1973.
The following chart is a SHORTER TERM comparison of the current Dow, the Dow in 1937, and the Dow in 1973, matching the current market top to the market top in 1937 and the market top in 1973.
I feel we are now in a saw tooth declining market pattern, like 37 and 73, that will continue at least into October. For the next few months I expect the pattern of 4 to 6 percent declines over a week or two followed by 3 to 5 percent rallies over the following week or two to continue again and again. Eventually, in both the 37 pattern and the 73 pattern there is a dramatic surging rally that makes a retest of the market highs. I think we will see a similar market surge to retest the highs, the problem is catching it. The surging retest in the 1937 pattern begins from a intermediate term low about four months after the market top. The surging retest in the 1973 pattern didn't begin until a intermediate term low about eight months after the market top. In the 1973 pattern the week after week chop 3 to 5 percent up and down continued for four months longer than the 1937 pattern. The following chart is a longer term view of the current Dow, the Dow in 1937, and the Dow in 1973, showing the extended time of the up and down market movement in the 1973 pattern.
My purpose in the above in this interview is NOT to tell you when this chop market will make that surging retest. My purpose now is to show you the above comparisons and say they suggest we will have this up and down week after week chop at least for a few more months. Eventually I think we will get to an October bottom that is about 15 to 20 percent down from the July high. I think we will get into powerful rally that sticks, rather than immediately fail, and make a run for new market highs by the end of the year or early January. In my Stock Index Timing .com web site I turned bearish and recommended 100% short on the stock market on July 13, 2007. I thought we were near important support last Thursday, July 16, and moved out of shorts on Thursday morning looking to side step one of those 4 to 5% rallies. I returned to 100% short on Friday's close, July 17. --------------------- From Commodity Index Timing .com and The Gold Bull .com (The Gold Bear .com) Follow up on our last interview: In our interviews in June and July, I pointed out the similarity of the comparison of the last four years CRB Continuous Commodity Index to the four years going into the 1929 stock market top. I suggested then we could have a few more months of commodity market rally, but I offered caution that we could have a severe commodity market correction before the end of the year. The following chart is an update of the comparison of the long term chart of the CCI centered on the recent high compared to the stock market in the 1920's and 30's centered on the 1929 market high. The comparison suggests we may have seen the top of the bubble in commodities and have begun a volatile commodity market decline that might be quite severe in the coming few months.
Here is a closer view of the above comparison of the Stock Market bubble top in 1929 compared to the Continuous Commodity Index centered on the July 20 high. I added in a current chart of Gold centered on July 20.
In my Commodity Index Timing .com web site, since July 1, I have recommended exiting commodity indexes and waiting in cash. In my "The Gold Bull .com" web site I just turned bearish on July 20, and renamed my web site to "The Gold Bear .com" and am recommending December 2007 puts in Gold. ---------- Good luck and good trading! George
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For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400, or email george@ georgeslezak.com All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING. All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
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