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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE

   

 

The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on August 27, 2010.

 

LISTEN

 

BOTTOM LINE?  

STOCK MARKET COMMENT 8/27/10

Bottom line: On August 20, I moved to a buy signal on the stock market, but I need to monitor the market closely. The mid term election does not give me a safe haven from violent volatile market moves.

Bonds? On August 19, I moved to a sell signal on Bonds. I feel that long rates have been artificially held down and a stock market move to new highs for the year (Dow above 11,300) will take the pressure off the Fed to hold long rates lower. The long rates could move back to the high rates of the year (Dec bond futures could move to the low of the year near 115, from today's 135.).

Gold? I'm on an August 6, sell signal on Gold. Gold tends to fall during rising interest rates. The World Gold Council recently said nearly 30% of world demand in the 2nd Quarter came from Gold ETFs. If Gold turns into a down trend and ETF demand becomes ETF supply, I would be very concerned about the market's ability to absorb both the production not taken by the ETFs and the ETF selling.

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STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION

I recently moved to a "buy signal" on the stock market because I am expecting a very strong September. I look for a 10% to 15% up move in the market during September.

Since I have moved to the "buy signal" I have often been told the mid term election will play a important role in the market between now and the election. In order to agree or disagree with the comments about the mid term election, let's look at the following charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the time period of the mid term election for the last 100 years.

ALSO, have you read about the "Hindenburg Omen?" Let's review the mid term election years to see if a market crash has happened in the past going into a mid term election.

Further, in the following charts nearly the entire year after the mid term elections are shown. Many people say the THIRD YEAR of a Presidential Term is a strong year. Run through the charts and see if that idea holds up over the last 100 years.

USE THE "PREVIOUS" "NEXT" LINK BELOW THE CHART TO RUN THROUGH 40 PAST MAJOR TOP COMPARISONS

SLIDESHOW 1

 


 SLIDESHOW 1                                 Previous . . Next . . Reset

USE THE ABOVE "PREVIOUS" "NEXT" TO RUN THROUGH 40 PAST MAJOR TOP COMPARISONS

 

My conclusion from reviewing the above charts is 12 of the 30 charts shown have up markets in the last two months leading into the mid term election. 12 out of 30 is not a great advantage simply on the numbers, so I'll stay on my toes.

Reviewing the two month periods just before the mid term elections to see if there have been violent volatile markets like those suggest by writers on the "Hindenburg Omen" does NOT RULE OUT the possibility. There are some very aggressive market drops in a few of the years going into a mid term election. Not a high probility based on just the mid term election variable, but a possibility.

Reviewing the above slideshow of charts from the point of view of looking at the third year of a presidential term ALSO does not give me the feel of a high probability up market.

Bottom line: I am on a buy signal, but I need to monitor the market closely. The mid term election does not give me a safe haven from violent volatile market moves.

Good luck and good trading!

George

 

 

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CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING DATES FOR CHART COMPARISONS OF THE "MODEL" 1929 TOP PATTERN TO OTHER PAST MAJOR MARKET TOP PATTERNS

 

 

 

 

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All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

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