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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on December 8, 2017.

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Will the transition from Solar Cycle 24 to Solar Cycle 25 have falling crop production and rising grain prices?


Solar Cycle 24 began in 2008 -  " the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December, 2008"
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-cycle-24-prediction-updated-may-2009 


Solar Cycle 24 had it's first peak of 98.3 in March 2012. 

NASA says "Many cycles are double peaked but this is the first in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first." https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 

The maximum of solar cycle 24 was reached in April 2014, with a maximum of 116.4 and the 13-month smoothed sunspot number at 81.8.  http://www.sidc.be/silso/news004  ( Please read this article.) https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 

In the above article they say "From the April 2014 high the next minimum could be 6 years later in 2020." But, if we go 6 years from the first peak in 2012, the next minimum could be in 2018.

CHART 1

See NOAA chart:  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

2014 : maximum year for solar cycle 24
Posted on: 7 April 2015
By: Frédéric Clette
Now that we completed the definitive sunspot numbers for 2014, we can conclude that the maximum of solar cycle 24 was reached in April 2014, with a maximum of the 13-month smoothed sunspot number at 81.8. Since then, solar activity has steadily declined (monthly mean sunspot number now around 40), but remained above 70 over many months, probably indicating that the annual mean for 2014 will also mark a yearly maximum at 78.9. Those values exceed the first peak of activity in cycle 24, which occurred in February 2012 but was short and only reached 66.9.  

http://www.sidc.be/silso/news004 

=================

The following chart is from:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/08/weak-solar-cycle-continues-the-sun-is-spotless-again/ 

It suggests based on the comparison to cycle 22, the next minimum could be as early as December 2018.

CHART 2



 

 

WHY AM I LOOKING FOR THE NEXT SOLAR CYCLE MINIMUM?

In the past, when we transition from one solar cycle to another, we often see falling crop production and rising prices.

The following chart shows the sunspot cycle since 1900 AND CBOT Wheat prices.

CHART 3

Generally, TEN OUT OF ELEVEN TIMES  we saw wheat prices rise as the sunspot cycle bottomed and turned up in the new cycle.

If the sun spot minimum will be in 2018 or 2019 or 2020, we should watch wheat closely.

 

AND, IS THERE SOMETHING BIGGER ON THE HORIZON?

The above chart shows the lower cycle peak in 1969, compared to 1959, may have lead to the 1973 1974 crop shortages tremendous bull move in grain prices (beans in the teens!). This may be similar to our 2012 2014 sun spot cycle peak being much lower than the previous year 2000 sun spot cycle peak. 

Could a Sun Spot Minimum AFTER A LOWER CYCLE PEAK lead to a 1973 1974 type grain market in the next few years. 

CHART 4

The lower 1969 peak was followed by a higher 1980 sun spot cycle peak because it was in the middle of the 100 year 200 year cycle. Some forecast that the next sunspot cycle peak in 2021-2023 will be LOWER than the 2012 2014 sunspot cycle peak because we are at the end of the 200 year cycle? 

COULD THIS MAKE A THIRD YEAR OR FOURTH YEAR CROP PRODUCTION SHORTFALL ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED SUN SPOT MINIMUM CROP PRODUCTION ISSUES?

 

Discussion:

The 2012 2014 solar cycle peak was the lowest in 100 years.  

"The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14, which had a maximum smoothed sunspot number V2.0 of 107.2 in February of 1906." https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 

That suggests we are in the back side of the 100 year cycle. That suggests the NEXT 11 year peak could be much lower. That is DIFFERENT from the 1979 peak being higher than 1969. The higher 1979 peak may have allowed crop production to recover. 

CHART 5

IF CROP PRODUCTION FALLS NOW BECAUSE OF THE LOWER 2012 2014 SUN SPOT PEAK, COULD A LOWER SUN SPOT PEAK IN THE NEXT CYCLE PREVENT A RECOVERY IN CROP PRODUCTION? IS IT DIFFERENT THIS TIME BECAUSE WE ARE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE GRAND MINIMUM CYCLE?

BOTTOM LINE: At the next Sun Spot minimum NOAA will predict the next Sun Spot peak. If we are in a wheat price bull market and that prediction is for a peak lower than the 2012  2014 peak, might the grain price rise get exceptional. Further,  if some then suggest we might be going into a MINI ICE AGE, what might happen to grain prices? 

Good luck and good trading!

George

PS Consider a scale trading approach, or dollar cost averaging approach to accumulating a position in the WEAT ETF.

 

 

 

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Current articles

http://www.crawfordperspectives.com/documents/0312244SolarWheatMedEngl.pdf 

http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts.html 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/the-sun-is-cooling-faster-than-anyone-suspected/ 

https://phys.org/news/2017-12-team-space-weather-method.html 
Team proposes new space-weather forecasting method

 

Sun Spot cycle background info 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/the-clear-present-danger-of-a-global-cooling-not-warming/ 

THE CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER OF A GLOBAL COOLING

 

youtube video on the next Mini Ice Age and CROP LOSSES.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?  v=AiHxJx0dawI

FOCUS ON PART TWO BEGINNING AT 36 MINUTES

Will we see crop losses starting in 2018?????

Other readings on the solar cycle:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/08/weak-solar-cycle-continues-the-sun-is-spotless-again/ Cycle 24 minimum by December 2018.

http://www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles.html 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljUg2D-vBak   Geologist Ian Plimer to the UK government

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 

 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u2/Biesecker2008.pdf 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-cycle-24-prediction-updated-may-2009 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/solar-cycle-25-amplitude-prediction/ 

http://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/on-the-recovery-from-the-little-ice-age/  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljUg2D-vBak

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/611671/ice-age-britain-freeze-climate-change-weather 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/mapping-worlds-population 

http://www.actforlibraries.org/relationship-between-sunspot-activity-and-crop-production/

 https://naldc.nal.usda.gov/download/CAT76674961/PDF 

https://www.briangwilliams.us/weather-change/the-sporer-minimum-dalton-minimum-and-maunder-minimum.html 

http://www.livescience.com/33345-solar-cycle-sun-activity.html 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1800_1849.htm 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles 

https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/category/solar-cycle-25/  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

http://www.stce.be/node/359 

 

 

 

The $49 per month subscription to the George Slezak web sites includes access to Commitments of Traders .com , and Stock Index Timing .com , where recommendations on the stock, bond and gold markets are made each week end considering the data in the COT Report. 

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All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.