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February 21, 2008
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If you study the
following history of releases of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve you
can conclude that releases most often drive oil prices down and have a
favorable impact on the stock market.
In this election year we
should be on watch for an OIL RELATED EVENT
that could lead to a release of oil from the reserve.
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Contrary to what you might believe, the one
thing that would help us most in driving down the price of oil would be an international crisis tied to
oil. Perhaps, if Chavez were to expand his embargo of EXXON Mobile,
it could be the single
best thing that could happen to our economy in this election year. Perhaps
the fires at the Texas refineries will be the excuse to release oil from the
reserve. Perhaps even the situation in Serbia could trigger an oil
event.
So far, we have cut interest rates and
passed a fiscal stimulus to try to turn the economy. But, I believe to complete the package we need to turn the
dollar to an up trend, without causing oil prices to rise in foreign currency and hurt our
trading partners. The ideal way to accomplish that feat is to turn down the
price of oil greater than the turn up in the dollar. If we can get oil in
dollars to
drop 25%, then we can also have a 10 to 15% rise in the dollar without
having the rising dollar raise oil prices in local currency to our trading partners
causing them to deal with potential inflation expectations.
In the past, international oil crisis's
have actually
resulted in a dramatic DROP in oil prices once the crisis triggers the release of oil
from the strategic petroleum reserve.
The US Government has a web site for the
U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In
that web site they have an explanation of the history of releases of oil from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve. (see http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/spr/spr-drawdown.html ).
In the following table, I am showing
the text in the left column from
the US Department of Energy Web site explaining the circumstances and
timing of each draw down from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve. In the right column I am showing a chart of the price
of crude during the time period of the oil release. In the second right
column I have plotted the Dow Jones Industrial Average in BLUE under the
chart of crude oil to show what might occur in the stock market if oil
prices fell from a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
All price charts shown below are updated
through February 18, 2008.
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Releasing Crude Oil From the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve exists, first and foremost, as
an emergency response tool the President can use should the United
States be confronted with an economically-threatening disruption
in oil supplies.
The Reserve has been used twice under these conditions. First, in
1991, at the beginning of Operation Desert Storm the United
States joined its allies in assuring the adequacy of global oil
supplies when war broke out in the Persian Gulf. An
emergency sale of SPR crude oil was announced the day the war
began. The second was in September 2005 after
Hurricane Katrina devastated the oil production, distribution, and
refining industries in the Gulf regions of Louisiana and
Mississippi. (Hurricane Katrina's impact was so great, in
fact, that SPR emergency oil loans preceded the President's
decision to drawdown and sell oil from the Reserve. The
first of several emergency loan requests from refiners was
received and approved within 24 hours of Hurricane Katrina
making landfall.)
In addition to national energy emergencies, crude oil has been
withdrawn many times from the SPR sites for other
reasons. Small quantities of oil are routinely pumped from the
storage caverns in tests of the reserve's equipment. And in
several instances, oil has been removed from the caverns under the
legal authority to "exchange" SPR crude oil. This
authority allows the SPR to negotiate exchanges where the SPR ultimately
receives more oil than it released; in other words, the exchanges
can be used to acquire additional oil for the SPR. The
Hurricane Katrina loans, mentioned above, were conducted using the
exchange authority. |
CURRENT DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.)

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CURRENT DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.)

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The following provides a brief history of the times
when crude oil has been released from the SPR:
Crude Oil Sales and Emergency Drawdowns
Twice the Administration has conducted test sales to ensure the
readiness of the Reserve and its personnel to carry out a
Presidentially-ordered drawdown. The first took place in 1985, the
second in the months immediately preceding Operation Desert Storm.
The
1985 Test Sale
Oil has been pumped into and out of the Reserve's storage sites
many times in routine tests. But until 1985, the competitive sales
process had never been tested outside of simulations run
inside the government. In 1985 Congress and the Administration
agreed it was time to test the full system, both the pumps and
paperwork, that would be needed to release oil from the Reserve in
the event of an energy emergency. When it extended the Energy
Policy and Conservation Act in June 1985, Congress authorized the
Department to conduct test sales for up to 5 million barrels that
would involve the private sector in the competitive sales
process for the first time.
On November 18, 1985,
the Department announced that it would begin accepting offers
for the crude oil. One week later, on November 26, 1985, 17
companies submitted offers. Since no energy emergency existed at
the time, the law governing the sale specified that the Energy
Department could not accept any offer for less than 90
percent of market price for similar quality crudes. On November
27, the Department announced that it would sell to the five
highest bidders who offered prices ranging from $27.69 to $31.25
per barrel. By December 4, the first contract had been awarded,
and the first oil delivery occurred on December 11. By January 8,
1986, all oil had been delivered and the test sale was
successfully concluded.
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CHART 1
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1985 and 1986. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of November
18, 1985, is placed in the middle of the chart so you can
see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 1 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1985 and 1986. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of November
18, 1985, is placed in the middle of the chart so you can
see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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The
1990/91 Desert Shield/Desert Storm Drawdowns
The 1990 incursion by Saddam Hussein's Iraqi troops into
neighboring Kuwait set into motion the first, and to this date the
only, Presidentially- ordered, emergency use of the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve.
When Saddam's forces breached the Kuwaiti border on August 2,
1990, world oil prices shot upward. With the Middle East
accounting for nearly half the crude oil the United States was
importing at the time, concerns escalated over a possible
disruption in oil supplies. Five days after the invasion, the
United States hurriedly dispatched the 82nd Airborne and several
fighter squadrons to the Persian Gulf, beginning Operation
Desert Shield.
On September 27, 1990,
Secretary of Energy James D. Watkins, after consulting with
President George H. W. Bush, ordered a 5-million-barrel test sale
of Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil to "demonstrate the
readiness of the [Reserve] system under real life
conditions." Stressing that the test was not an emergency
drawdown, Watkins nonetheless emphasized that increasing the
familiarity of the private sector with the Reserve's sales process
was important "should it become necessary in the future to
conduct an emergency strategic stock drawdown in coordination with
our allies."
On October 10, 1990, the Energy Department announced that it
would sell just under 4 million barrels of crude oil to 11 firms
that submitted the highest offers from the 33 companies that had
responded to the Department's solicitation. The amount sold was
less than the 5 million barrels offered because of a lack of
bids for one of the six types of crude oil the Department
advertised for sale. The first crude oil moved out of the
Reserve on October 19, 1990, and the test sale was completed
on Decembe r 3, 1990.
Saddam's aggression continued, however, and on January 16,
1991, President Bush in a nationally televised address announced
that U.S. and allied warplanes had begun attacks against Baghdad
and other military targets in Iraq. Simultaneously, the President
announced that the United States would begin releasing a portion
of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks as part of an
international effort to minimize world oil market disruptions.
Immediately following the President's address, Secretary
Watkins directed the Energy Department to prepare for a drawdown
of 33.75 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil, the
proportional amount assigned to the United States under a
coordinated emergency response plan drawn up by the International
Energy Agency. The oil was released over a 45 day
delivery period.
Operation Desert Shield had become Desert Storm,
and the first emergency use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had
been authorized.
Less than 12 hours after the President's authorization, on
January 17, 1991, the Energy Department released the crude oil
sales notice, and on January 28, 1991, 26 companies submitted
offers.
The rapid decision to release crude oil from
government-controlled stocks in the United States and other OECD
countries helped calm the global oil market, and prices began to
moderate. On January 30, 1991, the Energy Department accepted
offers from 13 companies offering the best prices for 17.3
million barrels of Strategic Reserve oil.
The total volume sold during the Desert Storm drawdown was just
over half the amount offered by the Government, primarily because
industry offers for the higher-sulfur "sour" crude oil
were substantially lower than bids for the lower-sulfur
"sweet" crude.
"We clearly must remain sensitive to the market by making
available the crude oil the industry is saying it really needs and
not allowing bargain hunters to take advantage of the
taxpayers," Watkins said in announcing his decision to accept
only those offers that were above 97.5 percent of benchmark
prices of comparable crude oils.
On February 5, 1991, the first crude oil in the emergency
drawdown was delivered.
On February 23, 1991, allied ground forces moved into Iraq and
Kuwait, and Hussein's troops began to pull back. Four days later,
on February 27, President Bush ordered a cease fire, and on March
3, Iraqi leaders formally accepted cease fire terms. The Persian
Gulf war was over.
World oil markets had remained remarkably calm throughout most
of the war, due largely to the swift release of the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve oil in combination with other oil response
measures taken around the world. By April 3, 1991, the Energy
Department had completed its contractual obligations, delivering
the last of the 17.3 million barrels.
In wrapping up the first-ever emergency drawdown the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve, Energy Secretary Watkins said, "We have
sent an important message to the American people that their $20
billion investment in an emergency supply of crude oil has
produced a system that can respond rapidly and effectively to the
threat of an energy disruption."
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CHART 2
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1990 and 1991. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of September
27, 1990, is placed in the middle of the chart so you can
see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 2 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1990 and 1991. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of September
27, 1990, is placed in the middle of the chart so you can
see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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| The
2005 Hurricane Katrina Drawdown
Hurricane Katrina entered the Gulf of Mexico in late August
2005 and caused massive damage to oil production facilities,
terminals, pipelines, and refineries. All Gulf of
Mexico production, which equates to about 25% of domestic
production, was shut in initially. In addition, import
terminals were closed; some pipelines and several refineries were
inoperable. Gasoline prices spiked nationwide in reaction to
the disruptions and the supply levels of gasoline and other
refined products were impacted.
Because of these disruptions, on September
2, 2005, President George W. Bush issued a Finding of a
Severe Energy Supply Interruption as defined in section 161(d) of the
Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), 42 U.S.C. 6 241(d).
President Bush authorized and directed the Secretary of
Energy to drawdown and sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve at a rate to be determined by Secretary of Energy
Samuel W. Bodman.
The United States' Hurricane Katrina sale was part of a
coordinated emergency response with the International Energy
Agency (IEA), a coalition of 26 member countries that supports
energy supply security through energy policy cooperation.
The IEA set a goal to make available 60 million barrels of
crude oil and refined products to help mitigate the
impact of the disruptions in the global flow of crude oil while
efforts were underway to restore operations of offshore production
platforms, refineries and other facilities.
On September 6, 2005, the Department of Energy issued a
Notice of Sale, offering 30 million barrels of crude oil
(15 million barrels each of sweet and sour). The
competitive sale was conducted on-line for the first time using the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve's Crude Oil Sales Offer Program. Offers
were due by 4:00 p.m., Central Daylight Time, September
9, 2005 (see September 6, 2005, Techline).
The results of the Hurricane Katrina sale were announced on
September 14, 2005 (see September 14, 2005, Techline).
Of the 30 million barrels offered for sale, fourteen offers
requesting 19.2 million barrels (14.8 million barrels of sweet and
4.4 million barrels of sour) were received from seven companies.
DOE evaluated each offer and determined that five companies
had submitted successful offers for 11 million barrels.
Awards were made for delivery of 10.8 million barrels of sweet and
200 thousand barrels of sour crude oil. The first oil
delivery commenced on September 26, 2005 from the Bryan
Mound site (deliveries are completed in batches as arranged
for by the purchaser) (see September 29, 2005, Techline).
The last drawdown and sale delivery is scheduled for
December 2005.
The total U.S. response to Hurricane Katrina, considering
both the emergency loans of 9.8 million barrels and the 11
million barrels of oil that was sold, was 20.8 million
barrels.
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CHART 3
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of September
2, 2005, is placed in the middle of the chart so you can
see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 3 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of September
2, 2005, is placed in the middle of the chart so you can
see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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Crude Oil Exchanges
Oil has been released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ten
times under exchange arrangements with private companies. The
Energy Policy and Conservation Act - the 1976 legislation that
authorized the Reserve - gives the Energy Department the authority
to exchange oil from the Reserve for the purpose of acquiring
additional oil for the stockpile.
The
ARCO Exchange. In
late April 1996, the ARCO Pipe Line Company incurred an
operational emergency when its 20-inch pipeline from the Texas
Gulf Coast to Cushing, Oklahoma, became blocked by a waxy crude,
interrupting its oil deliveries to the midcontinent. On May
3, 1996, under an emergency crude oil lease exchange
agreement with the Seaway Pipeline Company, the Energy Department
agreed to supply up to one million barrels of crude oil to enable
the start up of its Freeport-to-Cushing pipeline to continue the
flow of oil to the midcontinent refineries, avoiding any refinery
shutdown. Under the terms of the agreement, ARCO would pay the
Government a fee, plus a future price differential for leasing the
oil, and would replace the oil with an equivalent grade of crude
within six months. Under this lease, the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve delivered a total of 900,416 barrels of crude oil to the
Seaway Pipeline System. All the oil was returned by November 25,
1996.
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CHART 4
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1996. (Months are noted across the top of
the chart.) The focus date of May
3, 1996, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 4 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1996. (Months are noted across the top of
the chart.) The focus date of May
3, 1996, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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| The
Maya Crude Exchange. During 1998, the
Department conducted an exchange of the 11 million barrels of Maya
crude oil stored at the Bryan Mound site for 8.5 million barrels
of other higher value crude oil.
The Maya crude oil was acquired from Mexico in the early 1980s,
as part of a purchase agreement between the Department and
Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's national oil company. Since
that time, the Maya has been segregated in a single cavern at
Bryan Mound because its lower API gravity and greater sulfur
content made it significantly different from the other inventory.
This had the effect of reducing the site's operational
flexibility, efficiency, and drawdown capability during an energy
emergency.
On August 13, 1998, the Reserve solicited offers to deliver
crude oil which would meet the Reserve's quality specifications,
in exchange for the Maya. On August
27, 1998, the Reserve received offers from seven companies,
and on August 28, an exchange contract was awarded to P.M.I.
Norteamerico S.A. de C.V. of Houston, Texas. Subsequently, P.M.I. delivered
a total of 8.5 million barrels of light sour Olmeca and Isthmus
crude oils to Bryan Mound from October 1998 through early January
1999. In return, the Reserve transferred title of Maya
ownership to P.M.I.; however, the Maya crude remained in the
custody of the Reserve until October 1999.
This exchange decreased the Reserve's total inventory by about
2.5 million barrels, but because of the higher quality of the oil
received in the exchange, it did not decrease the value of the
inventory. Additionally, it benefitted the Reserve by increasing
the quantity of Bryan Mound's light sour crude oil stream and
improved the site's storage and drawdown capabilities.
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CHART 5
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1998 and 1999. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of August
27, 1998, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.
Note that the price drop in crude came during the time the
crude was DELIVERED.

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CHART 5 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 1998 and 1999. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of August
27, 1998, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.
Note that the price drop in crude came during the time the
crude was DELIVERED.

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| The
CITGO/Conoco Exchanges. In
June 2000, a commercial dry dock collapsed into the Calcasieu ship
channel just north of the Intracoastal Waterway near Lake Charles,
Louisiana. The channel served as the primary route used by nearby
CITGO and Conoco refineries, two of the largest in Louisiana. The
blockage meant that both refineries faced production curtailments
in a matter of days if crude oil could not be supplied to them.
In less than 30 hours after being approached by the companies,
the Energy Department had made arrangements to exchange oil from
the Strategic Reserve to relieve the refineries' supply problems.
On June 15, 2000, the Energy Department agreed to exchange 500,000
barrels from the Strategic Reserve's West Hackberry site with
CITGO in return for an equivalent quantity, plus an exchange
premium, of crude oil from the company after the shipping
lanes were reopened (see June 15, 2000, Techline).
The next day, June 16, 2000, the Department reached an exchange
agreement for the same amount with Conoco (see June 16,
2000, Techline). Crude oil from the Reserve began flowing
to the refineries on June
18, 2000.
Within a week, the U.S. Corps of Engineers had reopened the
shipping channel, and on July 29, CITGO delivered replacement
crude oil back to the Reserve. On August 4, Conoco delivered an
equivalent quantity of crude oil to the Reserve, completing the
exchange.
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CHART 6
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2000. (Months are noted across the top of
the chart.) The focus date of June
18, 2000, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 6 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2000. (Months are noted across the top of
the chart.) The focus date of June
18, 2000, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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| The
Heating Oil Reserve Exchange.
With U.S. consumers facing the winter of 2000-01 with
commercial heating oil stocks much lower than typical, the Clinton
Administration on July 10, 2000, announced its intent to establish
a Home Heating Oil Reserve (see July 10, 2000, Techline).
The goal was to establish a 2-million barrel reserve to provide an
emergency fuel source for consumers in the Northeast. The heating
oil was to be stored in aboveground tank farms leased from private
companies (see Northeast Heating Oil Reserve). To acquire the
storage facilities and heating oil, the Energy Department offered
to exchange crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
By the end of August 2000, the Department had contracts in
place with three companies to provide the terminal capacity and
with two companies to supply the heating oil. (see August
29, 2000, Techline). To acquire the first-year use
of storage facilities, the Department agreed to provide 117,667
barrels of crude oil to Equiva Trading Company, Morgan Stanley
Capital Group, Inc., and Amerada Hess Corporation. (After the
initial year, the Administration began requesting direct
appropriations to cover the costs of leasing commercial tank
storage.) To obtain the 2 million barrels of heating oil, the
Department provided 2,718,000 barrels of crude oil to Equiva
Trading Company and the Morgan Stanley Capital Group, Inc. These
companies offered the most favorable exchange terms to the
government in an open competition.
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CHART 7
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2000. (Months are noted across the top of
the chart.) The focus date of August
29, 2000.

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CHART 7 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2000. (Months are noted across the top of
the chart.) The focus date of August
29, 2000.

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| The
2000 Crude Oil Time Exchange.
Even with the establishment of the Home Heating Oil Reserve
(above), low distillate inventories in the Northeast continued to
alarm the Administration in the fall of 2000. On September 22,
2000, President Clinton directed the Secretary of Energy to enter
into time exchange agreements with oil companies for up to 30
million barrels of crude oil . Under the exchange agreements,
companies were to return a like quantity, plus a bonus percentage
of similar crude oil, in the fall of 2001.
An initial group of offerors was selected on October 4, 2000,.
When two of the selected offerors could not provide the necessary
financial guarantees, the Energy Department reissued a
solicitation for 7 million barrels of crude oil on October 16,
2000 and awarded final contracts on October 24, 2000 .
The average bonus percentage from these initial awards was 4.5
percent, for a total of 31.2 million barrels of exchange oil to be
returned to the Reserve by a specified date. However,
market conditions in 2001 made it advantageous to the
government to accept deferral of some of these
deliveries until 2002 and 2003. Companies scheduled to
supply oil to the Reserve agreed to provide an additional 3.3
million barrels as a condition of allowing later
deliveries, bringing the total amount of oil to be returned
under the time exchange to 34.5 million barrels.
In December 2002, with oil supplies tightening due to the
curtailment of exports from Venezuela, Energy Secretary Spencer
Abraham authorized the Department to accept further deferrals
of the 5.3 million barrels that remained to be delivered. The
renegotiated delivery schedules resulted in an additional premium
of 600 thousand barrels for delivery by early 2004,
resulting in a total return volume of 35.1 million barrels.
No further deferrals were permitted and the Exchange 2000
initiative is now completed.
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CHART 8
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2000 and 2001. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October
24, 2000, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 8 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2000 and 2001. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October
24, 2000, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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| The
2002 Hurricane Lili Exchange.
When Hurricane Lili disrupted normal commercial oil
shipments into Gulf Coast distribution hubs in October 2002, a
limited exchange of Strategic Petroleum Reserve was carried out to
permit a major oil pipeline operator to continue critical crude
shipments to refineries in Memphis and the Midwest.
The action began on September 30, when the Energy Department
was informed that the Capline pipeline, a major interstate oil
carrier that originates in Louisiana, might not be able to deliver
needed oil supplies to customers, including the Williams refinery
in Memphis, due to curtailments of incoming oil deliveries because
of Hurricane Lili. The Capline operator, Shell Pipeline Co. LP,
was concerned that using oil stocks from its Sugarland terminal in
St. James Parish, Louisiana, to keep the Capline pipeline flowing
would cause stock levels in the tanks to drop below the safety
threshold for protection against hurricane-force winds.
By October 1, Strategic Petroleum Reserve staff had worked out
an arrangement with the Capline Pipeline System to temporarily
relocate oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's Bayou Choctaw
site to keep stocks in Shell's tanks at acceptable levels. The SPR
temporarily relocated 296,000 barrels from the Bayou Choctaw site
to the Capline tanks. This allowed Shell to continue supplying oil
to Williams and other refineries in the Midwest that rely on the
Capline pipeline.
When commercial oil deliveries returned to normal the next
week, Shell pumped the SPR crude back to the government's storage
sitesite.
Because the SPR oil sent to Shell displaced oil in a connecting
pipeline that served the Placid Refinery in Port Allen, Louisiana,
the first 100,000 barrels of the returned SPR oil went directly to
the Placid Refinery. Under the exchange agreement, DOE received a
comparable grade of replacement oil within 60 days.
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CHART 9
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2002 and 2003. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October
1, 2002, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 9 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2002 and 2003. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October
1, 2002, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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| The 2004 Huricane
Ivan Exchange. Hurricane Ivan struck the Gulf
of Mexico in mid-September 2004 and disrupted both Outer
Continental Shelf production and import vessels delivering cargoes
to Gulf terminals. Most of the production shut in was in the
fields east of Louisiana and was sweet oil used in refining
gasoline and distillate products. The Department of Energy
received several emergency requests from refiners for assistance
in securing supplies of crude oil adequate to avoid cutting back
on refining operations. To relieve their shortages, the SPR
loaned a total of 5.4 million barrels of sweet crude oil to five
companies (Placid Refining, Shell Trading, Conoco Phillips, Astra
Oil, and Premcor). The crude oil was delivered to the
refiners during September and early October
2004. By
April 2005, the loaned oil had been repaid to the SPR,
plus 233,924 premium barrels paid to the Government in
return for the time-exchange. |
CHART 10
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2004 and 2005. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October
1, 2004, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 10 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2004 and 2005. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October
1, 2004, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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|
The
2005 Huricane Katrina Exchange. In late August
2005 Hurricane Katrina entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane,
causing massive damage to offshore oil producton facilities.
The destruction continued when she made landfall as a
Category 4 hurricane near New Orleans, Louisiana, on August
29, 2005. By the time she was finished, significant damage
to production platforms, terminals, pipelines and refineries had
occurred, leaving many facilities inoperable for weeks -
and some for several months.
Immediately after learning of Hurricane Katrina's devastating
impact, the Secretary of Energy approved six emergency requests
for loans of crude oil from refiners whose scheduled
deliveries had been disrupted. Without the SPR loans, the
refineries faced severe reductions in processing rates or shutdown
of their operations. The loans enabled them to continue
refining crude oil into products such as gasoline, heating oil,
and jet fuel for the Nation. The terms of the loans
require repayment of crude oil that meets the specifications
of the SPR, including premium barrels to be paid to the
Government. The first oil delivery occurred on
September 3, 2005, and continued in a series of batches through
October, totaling 9.8 million barrels. During Fall
2005, 4.2 million barrels of oil and accompanying premium barrels
were repaid. An additional 4.4 million barrels were repaid
between February and May 2006, and the remaining 1.7 million
barrels will be repaid during Spring 2007.
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CHART 11
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of
September 3, 2005, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 11 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of
September 3, 2005, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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| Total Exchange,
January 2006. On January 17,
2006, a barge
accident in the Sabine Neches ship channel resulted in the closure
of the channel to deep-draft vessels, disrupting deliveries
of crude oil to refiners in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area. In
order to avoid shut down or reduced runs at the Total
Petrochemicals USA, Inc. refinery at Port Arthur, the SPR agreed
to loan Total 767 thousand barrels of sour crude. The
loaned amount, plus premium barrels, was repaid in February
2006. |
CHART 12
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of January 17,
2006, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 12 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of January 17,
2006, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

|
| ConocoPhillips and
Citgo Exchanges, June 2006. On
June 21, 2006, the Calcasieu Ship Channel was closed to maritime
traffic due to the release of a mixture of storm water and oil
near Lake Charles, Louisiana, cutting off supplies to
refiners in the area. Deliveries to the ConocoPhilips
and Citgo refineries in the area were disrupted. In
order to avert temporary shutdown of both refineries, the SPR
agreed to loan a total of 750 thousand barrels of sour crude. The
loaned amount, plus premium barrels, was repaid in early October
2006. |
CHART 13
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of June
21, 2006, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 13 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of June
21, 2006, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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Emergency Sales
Although the Reserve was established to cushion oil markets
during energy disruptions, three times during 1996, non-emergency
sales of oil from the Reserve were authorized by Congress to raise
revenues. The total quantity sold was 28.1 million barrels.
Weeks Island Sale:
The first sale was requested by the Administration to pay for the
unexpected decommissioning of the Weeks Island Strategic Petroleum
Reserve storage site. A fracture in the overburden above the
converted salt mine - the only site in the Reserve that used a
former mine to store crude oil - threatened the site's geologic
integrity and its 73 million barrels of crude oil. On October 5,
1994, the Energy Department had announced that it would begin
transferring the oil to other sites to reduce the threat of its
catastrophic release into the environment. The cost of the
transfer and subsequent site decommissioning was estimated to be
$100 million. To pay for the effort, the Department proposed to
sell up to 7 million barrels of the Weeks Island inventory.
Congress approved the sale in the Balanced Budget Downpayment Act,
enacted January 26, 1996.
On January 29, 1996, the Defense Fuel Supply Center, acting as
the Energy Department's sales agent, issued a solicitation to
industry for competitive offers to purchase Weeks Island oil.
Subsequently, on a two-week cycle, beginning February 20 and
ending March 21, offers were received, negotiations conducted, and
contracts awarded to those offerors bidding prices consistent with
the oil's market value. Six contracts were awarded to four oil
firms for 5.1 million barrels. Deliveries were made between March
4 and April 21, 1996. Payments to the U.S. Treasury totaled $97.1
million, or $18.95 per barrel.
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CHART 14
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of March
4, 1996, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 14 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of March
4, 1996, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

|
| Sales to Reduce the
Federal Budget Deficit. The second sale of Weeks
Island crude oil was directed by Congress in the Omnibus
Consolidated Rescissions and Appropriations Act of 1996, enacted
April 26, 1996. It required the sale of $227 million worth of oil
during fiscal year 1996 to reduce the federal budget deficit. This
sale was performed in the same manner as the first. From May 22
through August 5, 1996, the Defense Fuel Supply Center awarded
twenty-four contracts to nine oil companies. Deliveries of 12.8
million barrels were made from May 26 through September 17,
1996.
This sale yielded $227.6 million in revenue for the U.S. Treasury,
or $17.81 per barrel.
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CHART 15
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of May
26, 1996, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

|
CHART 15 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of May
26, 1996, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

|
| The third sale was directed by the Omnibus Consolidated
Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 1997, enacted September 30,
1996, and called for the sale of $220 million worth of crude oil
to offset fiscal year 1997 appropriations. On October 3, 1996, the
Defense Fuel Supply Center issued a solicitation to prospective
offerors requesting bids to purchase West Hackberry sour crude
oil, and a small quantity of sweet crude oil in the pipeline
connecting the West Hackberry site with the Sunoco Marine Terminal
in Nederland, Texas. The first purchase contracts were awarded on
October 24, 1996, and by December 5, 1996, the Defense Fuel Supply
Center had awarded twenty contracts to seven companies for the
purchase of 10.2 million barrels to yield about $220 million in
revenue. The first delivery occurred on October 29, 1996 and all
deliveries were completed by January 1997. |
CHART 16
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October 29, 1996
, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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CHART 16 with Dow
The following chart shows DAILY Crude Oil front
month futures prices in 2005 and 2006. (Months are noted across
the top of the chart.) The focus date of October 29, 1996
, is placed in the middle of the chart so you
can see the oil price movement into and after that date.

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You can see from the above that the supply
to the market during three major releases of oil from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve, in 1985, 1991, and 2005, resulted in significant drops
in the market price of oil. (see charts 1,2, and 3.) These oil sales were
at prices no less than 90% of the current market.
In SEVEN of the TEN oil EXCHANGES,
oil market prices fell on the temporary increase in oil supplies. (see
charts 4 to 13.)
In the three oil SALES at market prices out
of reserves (see charts 14,15, and 16),
market prices of oil were not effected by the sale of oil out of the
reserves.
In conclusion, my statement in the
introduction that an oil crisis resulting in a release of oil from the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve would help to drive down the price of oil can now be
qualified to include the provision that a release of oil at below market
prices would have a greater impact on driving down market prices than an
"exchange" of oil that requires replacement at a later time.
I am NOT saying the Chavez situation or
the fires at the refineries in Texas WILL result in a release of oil from the reserve. I am trying to explain
the possible impact on the oil market and the resulting impact on
commodities in general of such a situation. If I see an announcement about releasing of from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, I
would then make recommendations to go short oil and possibly add stock
market longs.
Good luck and good trading!
George
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