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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE

The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on January 11, 2011.

LISTEN(8 minutes)

BOTTOM LINE?  

STOCK MARKET COMMENT 1/11/11

I am looking for the bursting of the commodity market bubble to take the stock market down into early February.

Based on the chart review below, the success of the economic recovery and the stock market in 2011 will determine the outcome of the 2012 election. 

There is the possibility that the bull market is over. There is also the possibility of a VERY CHOPPY year for 2011 and 2012. Have you rebalanced your portfolio capturing the doubling of the market since the 2009 low? Are you re positioned for the possibility of a couple of bad years for the market?

Bonds? Rates tend to go lower during violent market declines.

Gold? Down with the commodity bust.

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STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION

THIRD YEAR OF THE PRESIDENTIAL TERM

I have repeatedly heard in the news that the third year of a Presidential term is a good year for the market. Let's just look at past third years to see if an actual look at the market makes us feel as confident as a general comment about average market returns. 

(REMEMBER, the 1987 stock market crash came in the THIRD YEAR of Reagan's second term!)

To view the following slideshow, click on "next" below the following chart. To select individual Presidential terms, click on the election date in the table at the right.

SLIDESHOW 1

My conclusion of the above review of past 3rd years of Presidential terms is as follows:

If 2011 is a good year for the stock market, it increases the likelihood that President Obama will be re elected. Or, if you think President Obama will be re elected, then expect a good stock market in year 2011.

If 2011 is a difficult year for the stock market, expect President Obama will likely be a one term President. Or, if you expect President Obama will be a one term President, then expect a difficult stock market for the year 2011.

Good luck and good trading!

George

PS Use the above slide show of all 31 charts - more than 125 years of market history - and see what Presidential year most bull markets end. Which Presidential year do most bear markets end?

CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING DATES FOR CHART COMPARISONS OF THE THIRD YEAR OF PAST PRESIDENTIAL TERMS

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George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com )and www.commodityindextiming.com  (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $50 per month.