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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on January 16, 2018.

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Is the decline in the Dow Utilities an indicator of general stock market decline?

CHART 1

 

I have gone back in my file of past market tops since 1929 and found that 

the Dow Utilities tops

- before the Dow Industrials 16 out of 28 tops. 

- concurrent 5 out of 28, 

- and after 7 of 28.

 

The two comparisons that seem to suggest the type of decline ahead are the 1937 top and the 1990 top.

CHART 2

Following is the above chart of the 1937 top with the current Dow and Utilities plotted in light blue for comparison.

CHART 3

CHART 4

Following is the above chart of the 1990 top with the current Dow and Utilities plotted in light blue for comparison.

CHART 5

 

THE DOW INDUSTRIALS DECLINE IN BOTH OF THE COMPARISONS ABOVE ARE SIMILAR IN THAT THEY ARE ONE OF THOSE "RELENTLESS" DECLINES RUNNING FOR ABOUT 3 MONTHS.

ALSO, THE TOP PATTERNS IN THE TWO COMPARISONS ARE JUST STRAIGHT DOWN FROM THE TURN. NO FOREPLAY, JUST STRAIGHT INTO THE DECLINE.

Bottom line: Be prepared for a bear market to start at any time.

 

GOLD

In my weekly Stock Index Timing .com update of my commentary on gold I show that the comparison of current gold to gold in the 1990 period suggests gold and gold mining stocks will do well during the comparative stock market decline.

Good luck and good trading!

George

 

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All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.