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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE

The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on June 27, 2009.

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BOTTOM LINE?  

STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY 6/27/09

On the 6/22/09 close, I moved to neutral from short the stock market to get out of the way during quarter end window dressing. I look to return short soon, but now only look for a .382 or half back to the March lows by August, compared to my previous view that we could have a full retest or even break the March lows.

If we just have a shallow correction into August, the up move from August to October could take us above Dow 10,000.

GOLD MARKET COMMENTARY 6/27/09

Still short. I tie Gold and commodities to the stock market. In the stock market pull back into August, I look for Gold and commodities to get crushed.

BOND MARKET COMMENTARY 6/27/09

Still long. I tie Bonds to the stock market. I look for an early August low in the stock market and at the stock market halfback low I look for a peak in Bonds.

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STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY 6/27/09

The Clinton Market Masters return

In this past weekly Commitments of Traders .com commodity commentary I asked the following question: 

Is President Obama seeking Bill Clinton type market success or George W. Bush type market success?

One of my most perceptive views of the markets early in the President George W. Bush years was identifying the  team behind the President as the team from the Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and George H.W. Bush years. When people do a job they look back on their experiences and choose to repeat their successes.

Do you remember the Mexican Bailout at the end of 1994? President Clinton pulled off a "master stroke" market save with a then massive $50 billion guarantee. 

Chart 1

President Obama's team leaders are from the Bill Clinton years.

President Bill Clinton years 1992 to 1999.

The following chart covers the stock market, bonds, dollar, gold, and the CRB during the President Bill Clinton years 1992 to 1999.

Chart 2

The "success" of the President Bill Clinton years was a strong stock market AND a strong dollar and falling gold and falling commodities. His team were "masters" at strategic placing of massive government stimulus. Consider the potential of the same team with the trillions already sitting in their hands.

If the goals of the President Obama economic team are their successes during the President Clinton years, then why are so many market analysts looking for a President George W. Bush type commodity re-inflation?

I believe the President Obama / President Clinton economic success will be a rising stock market, a strong dollar, low interest rates, falling gold and commodities. The weak dollar / strong commodity markets where the markets of the George W. Bush Presidency.

 President George W. Bush years 2001 to 2008.

The following chart covers the stock market, bonds, dollar, gold, and the CRB during the President George W. Bush years 2001 to 2008.

Chart 3

HAS ANYONE PREDICTED THE TREND OF THE PRESIDENT OBAMA YEARS WILL BE A RISING DOLLAR AND FALLING COMMODITIES?

No, everyone predicts "last years" bull markets. Most can only see recent trends returning. It is only those that have lived through several cycles (us "old guys") that understand cycles go up and cycles go down. 

2009 Market Forecast

In February, I titled our interview "April 1978 type market explosion." I still think we are tracking that Jimmy Carter pattern and after an early August low I look for another up leg in the market to possibly near Dow 10,000! 

I'm just not sure we will see an "1978 type October massacre" at the end of the year. President Obama's team might just have too much money to let the market have a hard pullback. 

Maybe we will call it "October Massacre light?" 

Chart 4

Bottom line: Don't be stubborn and only look for last year's trends to return.

Good luck and good trading!

George

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Actual results to 6/30/09 All transaction costs and managements fees reflected. George Slezak Managed Mutual Funds actual results S&P 500 total return Year to date  +18.2% +3.2% 12 months ending   June 30, 2009 +45.0% -26.1% 3 year average annual return ending June 30, 2009 +10.1% -8.2% 4 year average annual return ending  June 30, 2009  (since inception of managed account  program) +8.8% -4.2%		Click here for Timer Digest review of Stock Index Timing .com           Click here for managed account information   or Email george@georgeslezak.com  or call 1-888-311-3400
The Managed Account Returns in the above table are based on actual accounts held in US Dollars and reflect a quarterly managed fee of .5% (1/4th of 2%) times the end of quarter balance. The managed account returns include dividends and interest earned on accounts and are compared to the total returns of the S&P 500 index (includes dividends) from published data. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. Click here for managed account information

 

George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com )and www.commodityindextiming.com  (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $35 per month.