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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE

   

 

The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on July 30, 2010.

LISTEN

BOTTOM LINE?  

STOCK MARKET COMMENT 7/30/10

My big picture conclusion is to ask the question if the secular bear market since year 2000 might have ended with the March 2009 low?

Bonds? If the secular stock market bear is over, we will see more normal rates soon.

Gold? If the secular stock market bear is over, gold will settle into a new trading range for perhaps the next five years or longer. (ie 800 to 1,200?).

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STOCK MARKET: BIG PICTURE UPDATE

I currently understand that many market analysts believe we have another bear market decline coming in what they believe is a continuing secular bear market.

I also currently understand that many economists believe the period of economic decline is behind us and we have the potential for an extended period of economic growth.

I see the POTENTIAL for BOTH ARGUMENTS and want to offer the caution that the next six months should be viewed with an open mind. Consider that either may develop and be willing to flow with the market.

My question in the following chart 1 and chart 2 is "how long does a secular bear market have to last?"

Was the 1966 to 1982 sixteen year secular bear market really 1966 to 1974, an eight year bear market?

CHART 1

 

The following comparison of the 1966 to 1982 secular bear period to the 1929 to 1942 secular bear. My question is again how long to secular bears have to last?

CHART 2

The following chart shows the comparison to the 2003 market low and suggests we might just consolidate for another year in the range of say 10,000 to 12,000 on the Dow.

CHART 3

Good luck and good trading!

George

 

 

George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com )and www.commodityindextiming.com  (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $50 per month.

 

 
   
   

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All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

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