George Slezak's   www. Stock Index Timing .com   
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on July 24, 2017.

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MARKET COMMENT 7/24/2017

 

March was the "internal top" and 

this week is the "external top."

 

I was looking at some of the "real" market stocks over the week end and I was giving some thought to the many stocks that did their highs earlier this year. For example look at the following charts of Goldman Sachs and IBM

 

CHART 1

 

I came up So I look through my file of past market tops focusing on the idea of a topping pattern with the left shoulder in March. 

Following are "some" of the past top patterns that support the potential for the March top as the "internal top."

 

CHART 2         Current Dow compared to the 1899 top.

 

CHART 3        Current Dow compared to the 1919 top.

 

CHART 4         Current Dow compared to the 1929 top.

CHART 5         Current Dow compared to the 1937 top.

 

CHART 6         Current Dow compared to the 1946 top.

 

CHART 7         Current Dow compared to the 1960 top.

 

CHART 8        Current Dow compared to the 1966 top.

CHART 9        Current Dow compared to the 1987 top.

 

ALL OF THE ABOVE COMPARISONS SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE THE NOVEMBER 2016 LOWS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.

BOTTOM LINE: For these, and other reasons, I am looking for the high of the year, sometime THIS WEEK. I'll plan on moving to a sell on the market on a break of S&P 2465-2450, with a stop above the highs.

.

CHART 10         GOLD

GOLD traded below the May low and that lower low puts a dark cloud over gold. Gold needs to trade above the June 1295 high to re affirm the potential up trend. Below 1205 it is in trouble.

 

 

CHART 11         

BONDS

BONDS look like their going lower, rates higher.

 

BOTTOM BOTTOM LINE: I could soon be negative on stocks, gold, and bonds.

 

Good luck and good trading!

George

 

 

 

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Sun Spot cycle background info 

http://www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles.html 

Maunder Minimum & Dalton Minimum

Solar Cycle 25 forecast comparison to Dalton Minimum 

Maunder Minimum & Dalton Minimum

 

1000 years of sun spot data showing "New Dalton Minimum" as 2020 to 2050

Maunder Minimum & Dalton Minimum

Please Google "mini ice age" for more information

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

NOAA Sunspot Number Progression

Google: You tube Climate Change explained by Geologist Ian Plimer Jan 2017,

or, click on the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=ljUg2D-vBak 

 

Solar Cycle 24 Predictions made in 2007 and 2009:

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 
Solar Cycle Prediction METHODS


 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u2/Biesecker2008.pdf 
In 2007 the panel was split on whether Cycle 24 will be large or small.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-cycle-24-prediction-updated-may-2009 
In May 2009, after the cycle minimum in 2008, the solar cycle peak of near 90 was expected to occur in May 2013.


Solar Cycle 25 Prediction:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf 
Recap on Solar Cycle 24 and first predictions for Solar Cycle 25. (September 2015?)

At the Solar Cycle 24 Minimum in 2020, the next cycle maximum can be predicted. The following article is an approach to predict the cycle 25 maximum 4 years before the cycle 24 minimum.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/solar-cycle-25-amplitude-prediction/ 
12/2016 A monthly smoothed maximum sunspot number of 62 is derived for Solar Cycle 25. This would probably be around 2025. This is almost down to Dalton Minimum levels.

 

http://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/on-the-recovery-from-the-little-ice-age/  
On the recovery from the Little Ice Age

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljUg2D-vBak 
Climate Change explained by Geologist Ian Plimer to the UK government

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

huffingtonpost.com

The bad news is that some studies show sunspot magnetic field strengths have been declining since 2000 and are already close to the minimum needed to sustain sunspots on the solar surface. This is also supported by independent work in 2015 published in the journal Nature. By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all, spelling the end of the sunspot cycle phenomenon, and the start of another Maunder Minimum cooling period perhaps lasting until 2100.

But the good news seems to be that none of the current forecasts suggest Cycle 25 will be entirely absent. A few forecasts even hold out some hope that a sunspot maximum equal to or greater than Cycle 24 is possible.

 

more articles on the new ice age are appearing.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/611671/ice-age-britain-freeze-climate-change-weather 

 

Solar Cycle 26 Prediction:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm 
Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.

"In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other -- peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova.

 

 

Reflect of world crops and world population:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf 
See page 14 for summary of world crop production.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/mapping-worlds-population 
Mapping The World's Population

 

http://www.actforlibraries.org/relationship-between-sunspot-activity-and-crop-production/ Relationship between Sunspot Activity and Crop Production

A study done by the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that: 1. Lower than average crop yields are associated with low sunspot activity, 2. Higher than average yields are associated with high sunspot activity and 3. Both the single and double sunspot cycles may give useful information in predictions of yield deviations.

https://naldc.nal.usda.gov/download/CAT76674961/PDF 
Sunspot activity may affect crop yields

 

 

What happens during a "New Dalton Minimum?

https://www.briangwilliams.us/weather-change/the-sporer-minimum-dalton-minimum-and-maunder-minimum.html 

It was a time of very cold weather. People called it a "Little Ice Age." The Baltic Sea froze over completely in the winter of 1422-23. There were famines. Norse colonies in Greenland were abandoned because their crops failed and the sea froze over, preventing them from fishing. The colonists were starving and the survivors had no choice but to return to Scandinavia.

A similar, but less dramatic, "sunspot minimum" was just commencing at the time Maunder was studying the records. The Dalton Minimum lasted from about 1795 to 1820 and marked another period of cool weather, during which there was one year, 1813, that came to be known as a year without a summer.

 

A new sunspot cycle BEGINS with the first appearance of a sun spot after a period of no sun spots

sunspohttp://www.livescience.com/33345-solar-cycle-sun-activity.html 

As the sun reaches the end of a cycle, new sunspots appear near the equator, and a new cycle begins with the production of sunspots at higher latitudes on the surface of the sun.

The following list of solar cycles shows solar cycle 6 began in August 1810, reached a peak in May 1816,  with a maximum smoothed number of 81.2. (The "year without a summer" was 1813.)

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1800_1849.htm 

Spring & Summer 1812 were notably cold.

1813-1814 winter: One of the four or five coldest winters in the CET record. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles 

IF NEW CYCLE 25 BEGINS IN 2019 , COULD WE HAVE A YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER IN 2021 or 2022?

COULD COLDER SUMMERS COME BEFORE THEN? in 2019 or 2020?

“Solar Minimum Is Coming” Video
https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/category/solar-cycle-25/  

 

 

 

The $49 per month subscription to the George Slezak web sites includes access to Commitments of Traders .com , and Stock Index Timing .com , where recommendations on the stock, bond and gold markets are made each week end considering the data in the COT Report. 

The $49 per month subscription is billed month to month to your credit card through PayPal, click here to subscribe.

 

 

 

All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.