CLICK HERE to visit other George Slezak web sites:

 See  Timer Digest review of Stock Index Timing 

George Slezak's   www. Stock Index Timing .com   Index Page 
formerly FUTURES FAX .com  - C 2007, George Slezak, 23371 Olde Meadowbrook Cir. Bonita Springs, FL 34134
 For more information call  888-311-3400 
 Use www.sit1.com as a shortcut to typing the web name of this page.

 

MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE

 

The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on June 28, 2008. 

 LISTEN

BOTTOM LINE ON STOCKS: Currently "NEUTRAL," but long term bearish. On June 17, Dow 12160 and S&P 1351, I moved to "NEUTRAL on the market."  I am now looking for a set up to move to a buy on the market for the bounce I expect from mid July to early September. In September, I expect to move to an aggressive sell on the market.

BEAR MARKET PLAN.

The following chart shows three past major bubbles; the bubble and bear in the Dow into and after 1929, the bubble and bear in GOLD into and after 1980, and the bubble and bear in the Nikkie into and after 1990.

CHART 1

 

I think the NASDAQ (in magenta placed on top of the 1929 pattern below)  best shows my view of the position of the stock market.

CHART 2

 

In my commentary this weekend at Stock Index Timing .com, I discuss the pattern I expect in this third leg of decline. I feel we will look more like the relentless decline of the Dow 1930 to 1932 bear rather than the faster decline of the Dow 1937 stock market decline.

CHART 3

The key pattern of the Dow 1930 to 1932 decline is the recurring six week break followed by a half  back (of the six week leg) correction, followed again by another six week break, and again and again......

CHART 4

So I think we are finishing a "leg" down and will probably have a "double hump" bounce back towards Dow 12,300 between now and September. Then, I think we will go into another six week trending decline.

The following chart compares the current Dow to the Dow pattern in 1930.

CHART 5

 

GOLD

I just can't separate gold from the commodity bubble. The following chart places current gold (in gold) and the current CRB (in magenta) on top of my bubble comparison chart.

CHART 6

 

I think the position of the stock market going into the big third leg of decline since the year 2000 top at the same time as the gold/commodity markets at a bubble peak is of great concern.

The a comparison of the current Gold / Stock market pattern compared to the Gold / Stock market pattern into and after the 1987 stock market crash is a good illustration of what happens to commodities once investment demand dries up. 

The March high in Gold lagging after the October high in the stock market is similar to the December 1987 high in gold following the August 1987 high in the stock market.

CHART 7

 

INTEREST RATES

In the following chart I place the current NASDAQ (in magenta) on top of the Nikkie pattern of the 1990s. This, along with expecting a burst in the commodity bubble, is where I get my view that we are moving into a serious time of deflation like the late 1930's in the US or like the recent experience in Japan, and the impact on interest rates will be dramatic. 

I think both long and short term interest rates are low going lower, for a long time.

CHART 8

 

Good luck and good trading!

George

George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com )and www.commodityindextiming.com  (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $35 per month.

Don't miss the next market timing call, subscribe to Commitments of Traders .com. The subscription to Commitments of Traders .com includes subscriber access to Stock Index Timing .com with the market timing signals and weekly stock index commentary.

Click here for information about SUBSCRIBING to 
www. Commitments of Traders .com that includes 
www. Commodity Index Timing .com and www. Stock Index Timing .com      

Privacy Policy

For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400, or email george@   georgeslezak.com 

All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
Click the 'Sign up' button for the FREE weekly email commentary on the Commitments of Traders Report, which also includes special Stock Index Timing notices and subscriber advisories:

 

..

 

Click on the following links for the chart 
reference to other interviews by Ike Iossif 
of Market Views .TV.

 

.

 

 

 

George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com ) and www.commodityindextiming.com  (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $35 per month.