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George
Slezak's www. Stock Index Timing .com Index
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MARKET VIEWS INTERVIEW CHART PAGE |
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on June 1, 2007. ----------------- From Commitments of Traders .com The following summary of the new Supplemental Commitments of Traders Report shows that the "index traders" (CIT) control 20% to 40% of the open interest in the agricultural futures included in the commodity indexes.
My concern that the positions held on behalf of commodity indexes could be bigger than the commodity markets led me to think about a possible "squeeze" of the markets and that led me to make a long term comparison of the Commodity Research Bureau Continuous Commodity Index to the "classic" bubble pattern of the stock market in the 1920's.
From www. Commodity Index Timing .com Here is a longer term comparison of the last ten years of the Commodity Research Bureau Continuous Commodity Index, the CCI (in blue) compared to the 10 years of the Stock market going into the top in 1929. The comparison suggests we should ask ourselves if the commodity markets are in a classic market bubble.
From www. Commodity Index Timing .com Here is the same match up as above of the CCI (in blue) to the Dow top in 1929, only taking a closer look. This comparison suggests we could be near the final blowout to the upside leg in the commodity bubble over the next few months.
From www. Stock Index Timing .com Now that I see the chance of a explosive upside move in commodities followed by a possible bubble burst, I am concerned that the course of the stock market since the 2002 low may also be nearing a top. The following comparison of the NASDAQ top in year 2000 to the top pattern of the Dow in 1929 shows that our up move since the 2002 low has similar patterns to the up move of the Dow from 1932 to 1937. This comparison of the NASDAQ Index to the chart pattern of the 1930's make me ask if we could simply be about ready to go into the second bear leg of a secular bear market that began in 2000?
From www. Stock Index Timing .com A simple trend line drawn on the following 25 year long term chart of the adjusted US Bond futures suggests we could be breaking the long term up trend line of the US Bond futures and therefore we may be seeing a major trend change in interest rates.
CONCLUSION: So, the new "Supplemental" Commitments of Traders Report from the CFTC laying out the Index Traders positions in the futures markets, leads me down the path of a possible blow out squeeze in the commodity market derivatives that may trigger a dramatic 1979 type jump in interest rates, that triggers a 1937 1938 type decline in the stock market. Ike, thanks for letting me explain my concern for this possible scenario to your subscribers. Good luck and good trading! George
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For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400, or email george@ georgeslezak.com All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING. All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
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