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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE

The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on June 21, 2011.

LISTEN

STOCK MARKET COMMENT 6/21/11

In my weekly stock market commentary at www.stockindextiming.com , I have been tracking the possibility of a new bear market off the May 2nd high. At this stage of the long term SECULAR BEAR MARKET that began in year 2000, a new bear market phase might look like the last 18 months of the 1929 to 1942 secular bear market in the US, or the Japanese 1990 plus secular bear years going into the year 2002 bottom.

CHART 1 Current NASDAQ compared to Dow Industrials 1929 to 1942 secular bear, and compared to the1990 to 2002 NIKKIE secular bear.

With the view that we are going into another bear leg down, I have looked for past market tops that might be a guide for our current pattern.

CHART 2 Following is our current Dow top compared to the top in 1934. This pattern suggests we are in a correction (bounce) before resuming the decline in a few weeks.

CHART 3 Following is our current Dow top compared to the top in 2007. This pattern suggests we are in a correction before resuming the decline in a few weeks.

CHART 4 Following is a bigger view of the current Dow top compared to the top in 2007. This suggests the next decline could run from mid July until late September.

CHART 5 Following is our current Dow top compared to the top in 1940. This suggests the next decline could run from mid July until late September.

CHART 6  Longer term, I hope the next 18 month decline can hold above the year 2009 market bottom. (Dow 6,500 S&P 667.) The US stock market 1942 bottom comparison says we might hold those lows. The NIKKIE comparison says we could fall through.  Going into the 2002 lows, Japan was not able to hold it's previous lows and fell through on continued real estate problems and government corruption.  

Bottom line: For now, let's focus on "stalking" this bounce over the next week with the goal of catching the next leg of decline that could run into late September.

Good luck and good trading!

George

George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com )and www.commodityindextiming.com  (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $49 per month.

 

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