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George
Slezak's www. Stock Index Timing .com Index
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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE |
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on March 10, 2008.
----------------- From Stock Index Timing .com Years ending in "eight": 1998, 1988, 1978, etc Many technical analysts are talking about the track record of years ending in eight and in this page I want to show information about the last 12 years ending in eight, 1888 to 1998, so readers can make their own conclusions about the data. In the following three charts I show the daily Dow Jones Industrial Average during the years ending in eight since 1888. The year is between the blue lines, and the approximate low of the year is marked with a red dot. (See charts 1, 2, and 3.) After the following three charts I show a table of the placement of the low of the year in years ending in eight in the first three months of the year. (Chart 4) After the table I am showing a comparison of the current market pattern to the pattern of the years ending in eight where the lows in years in March. (Chart 5) My conclusion is simply that if you want to consider this type of analysis, then we are likely ALREADY past the low of the year because 8 out of 12 past years ending in eight have lows before mid March. This suggests we should look for a higher market most of the rest of the year. Further, the market pattern comparisons suggest we should see explosive moves in the market to the upside when we get past the low of the year and retest. Based on reviewing the following charts of years ending in eight, and comparing it to my other cycle work, my guess would be the year will follow the pattern like 1978 and we could see the highs of the year in September. In April 1978 the market rallies over 12% in 4 weeks. After the March 1968 bottom the market rallied more than 12% in six weeks. After the March 1948 bottom the market rallied nearly 12% in six weeks.
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
The following table marks the MONTH of the lows of the years ending in eight and shows that 8 out of the 12 shown have lows of the year before mid March. Chart 4
Following is a chart comparison of the five years ending in eight that have lows of the year in March. Chart 5
Good luck and good trading! George
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For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400, or email george@ georgeslezak.com All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING. All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
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