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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE |
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on March 18, 2010. BOTTOM LINE? STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY 3/18/2010 I look for the market to climb into the middle of the year. Bonds? Eventually rates will move higher. Gold? Eventually the bubble will burst. ----------------- Before we begin, let me explain that my approach to market timing is to FIRST develop an opinion and then use technical analysis to market time. My basic opinion comes from my analysis of the portfolio hedging using stock index futures (from my Commitments of Traders .com web site), which shows strong accumulation, and suggests the market is under valued. My view of S&P earnings and GDP growth (see my January MarketViews.TV interview) confirms my view that the market is cheap.
Sure, up into mid year, and then what?????
I'm saying 12,500 to 13,000 on the Dow by mid year, and everyone wants to know what will happen AFTER THAT? This is a very serious problem. Too many people that I talk to have stayed out of the market and now say missing ANOTHER 15% is ok because they are more concerned about the last half of the year! This idea that the last half of the year will resume the bear market is so strong that we may just climb all year! INVESTORS MUST LEARN THAT POLITICS DON'T DRIVE THE MARKET! I was just talking to an investor and he said he was concerned that if health care passes this weekend the market could have a problem next week. DOES HE REALLY THINK THE HEALTHCARE BILL IS A SURPRISE? It has been around for a long time. All of it IS in the market! First, the next few months. Here are some chart comparisons to past market patterns that help explain of my views on the market for the next FEW MONTHS! Following is a comparison to the market after the 2002 bottom. The comparison suggests we could see a market SURGE over the next two months. CHART 1
Following is a comparison to the market after the banking panic of 1906, and the 1907 bottom compared to 2009. CHART 2
Following is THE SAME comparison as above only I have shrunk the comparison chart to better fit the time period of our current market zigs and zags. This time shrunk comparison suggest we could have a very strong up surge over the next few months. CHART 3
Following is a comparison to the market after the 1974 bottom compared to 2009. The comparison suggests we could have a strong surge in the market over the next few months. CHART 4
The following chart comparison is looking at the current 60 minute chart of the Dow and comparing it to the daily chart of the Dow over the last few years. The comparison shows HOW our current daily chart might stretch out into a strong market "extended fifth leg" surge over the next few months! CHART 5
BUT WHAT ABOUT AFTER THAT? Sure, I knew you would ask! Chart 1 above was a comparison to the 2002 2003 bottom. If we extend that chart comparison, it would suggest a down consolidation for the last half of the year. Chart 4 above is a comparison to the 1975 time period. If we extend that chart comparison, it would suggest a down consolidation for the last half of the year. CHART 6
Chart 3 above is a comparison of our 2009 bottom to the 1907 bottom. If we take a longer view of that comparison we could see a difficult market the last half of 2010. CHART 7
The following comparisons to 1943 and 1939 ALSO suggest we could have a pull back or a more difficult last half of the year 2010. CHART 8
So I guess my bottom line is I look for a strong market into the middle of the year. The above comparisons that suggest a difficult last half of the year were based on comparisons that had a surge for the next few months. Let's see if that surge actually happens before we lock in our forecast for the last half of the year.
RATES CHART 9 The following green and red chart is the one year and ten year US Government interest rate. We should expect the stock market recovery will cause rising interest rates.
GOLD Just another bubble that WILL eventually burst. CHART 10
Good luck and good trading! George |
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George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com )and www.commodityindextiming.com (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $50 per month.
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