George Slezak's   www. Stock Index Timing .com   
C 2017 , George Slezak, 23371 Olde Meadowbrook Cir. Bonita Springs, FL 34134
For more information email george@georgeslezak.com 
Use www.sit1.com as a shortcut to typing the web name of this page.

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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on May 9, 2017.

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MARKET COMMENT 5/9/2017

The audio for the interview came out quite poor. 

Click HERE for a video redo of the content of the Interview.

 

Forecast and Follow: 

FOUR MONTH CYCLE LOWS IN GOLD?

 

"Forecast and Follow" is looking at a market with an opinion, and then using some mathematical approach or pattern approach to trigger trade entries and stops.

In gold, I have the view that there is a four month cycle, bottom to bottom, that seems to show in gold price history going back many years of trading history. I also have the view that there is a 12 to 13 month cycle, made up of three 4 month cycles, that also seems to show in gold price history going back many years. 

The four month cycles can have left or right translation, and the 12 to 13 month cycles can also have left or right translation.

CHART 1

 

So I am trying to catch a low here in gold, expecting it to look something like the low back in December. (The December low is at the left side of the following chart.) I am watching silver and platinum to help call the 4 month cycle low.

CHART 2

 

 

I am also watching the gold mining stocks to try to help call the 4 month cycle low.

CHART 3

 

I am also watching the Swiss Franc to try to help call the 4 month cycle low.

CHART 4

 

Longer term my view is we may be in the later stages of a strong up market, like the market in 1978. 

CHART 5

 

BOTTOM LINE: The hard gold declines in December 2015, and December 2016, make the comparison to the gold market in 1978 difficult, but, if we use tools to "follow" the market with the forecast that we may be moving into the aggressive up stage of the market, we can look for indicators or patterns to repeatedly find buy points, with stops, to try to be in the market in case to up move ignites.

 

 

STOCK MARKET

My "forecast" is for a decline in the stock market now through the end of the year. My timing signal is currently "neutral" and I will look for weakness to begin when we trade below last week's 2380 S&P low, and then move to a full negative position when we trade below the S&P 2325 March low.

CHART 6

 

 

 

Good luck and good trading!

George

 

 

 

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reference to other interviews by Ike Iossif 
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Sun Spot cycle info 

http://www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles.html 

Please Google "mini ice age" for more information

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

NOAA Sunspot Number Progression

 

Google: You tube Climate Change explained by Geologist Ian Plimer Jan 2017,

or, click on the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=ljUg2D-vBak 

 

Reflect of world crops and world population:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf 
See page 14 for summary of world crop production.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/mapping-worlds-population 
Mapping The World's Population

 

 

Solar Cycle 24 Prediction:

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 
Solar Cycle Prediction METHODS


 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u2/Biesecker2008.pdf 
In 2007 the panel was split on whether Cycle 24 will be large or small.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-cycle-24-prediction-updated-may-2009 
In May 2009, after the cycle minimum in 2008, the solar cycle peak of near 90 was expected to occur in May 2013.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf 
Recap on Solar Cycle 24 and first predictions for Solar Cycle 25. (September 2015?)


Solar Cycle 25 Prediction:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/solar-cycle-25-amplitude-prediction/ 
12/2016 A monthly smoothed maximum sunspot number of 62 is derived for Solar Cycle 25. This would probably be around 2025. This is almost down to Dalton Minimum levels.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

huffingtonpost.com

The bad news is that some studies show sunspot magnetic field strengths have been declining since 2000 and are already close to the minimum needed to sustain sunspots on the solar surface. This is also supported by independent work in 2015 published in the journal Nature. By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all, spelling the end of the sunspot cycle phenomenon, and the start of another Maunder Minimum cooling period perhaps lasting until 2100.

But the good news seems to be that none of the current forecasts suggest Cycle 25 will be entirely absent. A few forecasts even hold out some hope that a sunspot maximum equal to or greater than Cycle 24 is possible.

 

 

 

The $49 per month subscription to the George Slezak web sites includes access to Commitments of Traders .com , and Stock Index Timing .com , where recommendations on the stock, bond and gold markets are made each week end considering the data in the COT Report. 

The $49 per month subscription is billed month to month to your credit card through PayPal, click here to subscribe.

 

 

 

All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.