See  Timer Digest review of Stock Index Timing 

George Slezak's   www. Stock Index Timing .com   Index Page 
C 2008, George Slezak, 23371 Olde Meadowbrook Cir. Bonita Springs, FL 34134
For more information call  888-311-3400 
Use www.sit1.com as a shortcut to typing the web name of this page.

MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE

The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on November 1, 2008.

LISTEN

BOTTOM LINE?  

I'm on an October 16, 2008, sell signal on the stock market. I look for a three or four week slide from the current 9300 Dow to the 2002 Dow lows of 7177. My long term view is over the next FOUR YEARS I look for the Dow to whipsaw in the range of 6,000 to 10,000. I believe market timing will be critical to your investment survival over the next four years.

I look for GOLD (and commodities) to bounce into the end of the year as we adjust to some type of new "Bretton Woods" currency agreement after the G20 meeting in the second week of November. 

I look for BONDS to plunge into the end of the year as we try to raise the money to pay for the bailouts.

Have a great day today, because tomorrow doesn't look so good. 

Good luck and good trading!

George

STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY 11/1/08

Let's begin with my long term view of the stock market. The following chart compares the current Dow to the Dow from 1914 to 1942, and the Dow from 1948 to 1982. I view our current market condition to still be tied to the unraveling of the stock market bubble that topped in year 2000.

CHART 1

The Above comparison suggests the next phase of the market will be a four or five year consolidation like the consolidations in 1938 to 1942 and 1976 to 1982.

Research comment: The following chart shows a current long term comparison of the Dow Industrials to the S&P 500 to the NASDAQ Composite to show support for the idea that we are still in a market reaction to the market bubble into the year 2000 market top. Basically, the Dow Industrials went to a high above the year 2000 highs generally due to the weak dollar impact on  international business. The broader more domestic S&P and NASDAQ did not share as fully in the weak dollar benefit.

CHART 2

Actually, market history is peppered with four to five year consolidation periods. I expect the next four years to be like the market patterns of 1938 to 1942, or 1893 to 1897, or 1910 to 1914, or 1946 to 1950, or 1978 to 1982, or 1946 to 1950.

CHART 3

CHART 4

CHART 5

Applying a broad average of the above years as a forecast suggests we will trade between Dow 6,000 and Dow 10,000, year after year, over the next four or five years. I think we will travel tens of thousands of Dow points over the next four years and still be at basically the same spot four years from now as we are today!

Shorter term my market cycles suggest a continued slide for the next three or four weeks, and I think the market pattern of the 1976 election is a good model of the market I expect the next few weeks.

CHART 6

Actually, I am a bit less optimistic than the 1976 1977 pattern and view the next six months more like the 1937 1938 period below. (Note: in 1976 the stock market was closed on election day. I wonder why?)

CHART 7

BOND MARKET COMMENTARY 11/1/08

My bearish view of bonds can also be reflected in a comparison to the 1976 election period. The following chart is a comparison of the current one year and ten year interest rates compared to the one year and ten year rates in 1976. I think the huge funding of the bailouts will drive interest rates higher over the coming years.

(The following chart is actually daily bars that range from the one year rate to the ten year rate. When the one year rate is less than the ten year rate the bar is colored green. When the rates are inverted I color the bar red.)

CHART 8

GOLD COMMENTARY 11/1/08

My focus on the 1976 period led me to make a comparison of current SILVER to SILVER back in 1976. The heavy extreme net commercial buying in the Commitments of Traders data at my web site www.commitmentsoftraders.com  has had me waiting out the hedge fund liquidation looking for a buy point for commodities and Gold. Considering the wash out in commodities this past month, I was guessing that the end of this month should be near the end of the hedge fund liquidation of commodity and gold positions. The following comparison of current SILVER to SILVER back in 1976, tipped my scale to bring me to a buy signal on commodities and Gold as of October 31.

I'm now looking for a strong up move in commodities and Gold into February or March of 2009.

CHART 9

BOTTOM LINE?  

I look for a three or four week slide from the current 9300 Dow to the 2002 Dow lows of 7177. My long term view is over the next FOUR YEARS I look for the Dow to whipsaw in the range of 6,000 to 10,000. Market timing will be critical to your investment survival over the next four years.

I look for GOLD (and commodities) to bounce into the end of the year as we adjust to some type of new "Bretton Woods" currency agreement after the G20 meeting in the second week of November. 

I look for BONDS to plunge into the end of the year as we try to raise the money to pay for the bailouts.

Have a great day today, because tomorrow doesn't look so good. 

Good luck and good trading!

George

.

George Slezak publishes the web sites www.commitmentsoftraders.com (shortcut www.cot1.com ) and www.stockindextiming.com (shortcut www.sit1.com )and www.commodityindextiming.com  (shortcut www.cit1.com ) for a combined monthly subscription of $35 per month.

..