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George
Slezak's www. Stock Index Timing .com Index
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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE |
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on October 6, 2007. ----------------- From Stock Index Timing .com Each weekend write a stock market commentary for my Stock Index Timing .com web site. Part of my preparation for the commentary is to update my technical analysis page on Friday night and then run the current market pattern against my file of past market tops and past market bottoms. One of my technical page charts is the chart of the Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, and Dow Utilities. I just try to recreate those "great" charts of the Dow averages we used to get in the daily Wall Street Journal so I have a quick reference to Dow Theory. The following chart shows the clear non confirmation, so far, by the Transports and Utilities of last week's new high trade in the Industrials.
On my "tech" page I also have other indicators that are not confirming the new print high in the Dow, particularly the Advance Decline Line and the Advance Decline Volume. (Following is a chart of the NYSE Index and the NYSE AD Line and the NYSE AD Volume line, and net NYSE new highs in green and net NYSE new lows in red.)
When I ran through my file of past market tops using Friday as the new market high I saw that many patterns seem to still match to July 19 as the market top. So I took the current Dow data and subtracted the 234 point gain on the day of Bernake's first cut in the discount rate on August 17, and then also subtracted the 336 gain on the day of the half and half rate cuts on September18.
I then ran through my file of past market tops and surprisingly I find us at a very close match IN TIME to several past important market top retests or "pattern right shoulders." Here are a few of the pattern comparisons that seem to match fairly well.
Now, I want to caution that pattern matching is a very FLAWED approach to market forecasting. There are hundreds of market patterns, and everyday I can find patterns that match that are either bullish or bearish. But these market pattern matches bring up a bigger issue. DOES FED INTERVENTION REALLY MODIFY MARKET PATTERNS? The following chart is my "ADJUSTED" Dow Industrials compared to the actual current Dow Transports:
Dow Transports have NOT had the rush to new highs like the Industrials. SEEMS THIS IS WHAT DOW THEORY IS ALL ABOUT. In the end, perhaps the TRUE market comes out through non confirmations and divergences. My recommendation has been to be short the market generally since July 13th. We will see in the next week or so if Fed market INTERVENTION can change market patterns. And, it seems we are at a very critical point in the confirmation or non confirmation process. Not a good time to be in the volatile month of OCTOBER. (Remember the line in Airplane? "not a good time to quit smoking!") ---------------------------- From Commodity Index Timing .com and The Gold Bull .com (The Gold Bear .com) Follow up on our last few interviews on the Commodity Bubble: In our interviews since June, I have been pointing out the similarity of the comparison of the bubble in the CRB Continuous Commodity Index to the bubble in the Hang Seng, to the bubble going into the 1929 stock market top. In the past I have suggested we could have a few more months of commodity market rally, and we have, but I offered caution that we could have a severe commodity market correction before the end of the year. Now, I think the above discussion of the stock market position could be the trigger for stocks, commodities, and foreign markets, to all get hit all at the same time. I suggest everyone check the foreign markets each morning as an early warning of the trouble we could see in the coming weeks. (I use this Yahoo link http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Ehsi first thing every morning to see if the China market took it in the neck yet. You might book mark it.) The following chart compares the current long term chart of the CRB Continuous Commodity Index to the Current Hang Seng to the chart matching the top of the 1929 stock market.
------------------- Good luck and good trading! George
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For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400, or email george@ georgeslezak.com All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING. All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
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