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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on October 24, 2017.

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MARKET COMMENT 10/24/2017

 

The first few days AFTER a short term market top 

we can study the advance decline volume ratio to see 

if it might be an important top.

 

Friday's close is the all time high close. Yesterday, the NYSE declining volume was 315% yesterday's NYSE advancing volume. Three or four more heavy declining volume ratio days could indicate that we had a major top.

The following table shows the ratio of advance decline volume and decline advance volume WHEN the ratio is greater than 150%.

Advancing volume and Declining volume can be a signal of a market top when in the days following a possible market top there is a series of decline volume over advance volume ratio greater than 1.50%.

 

Data tip! You can go to the following page through out the day to see the advancing volume and the declining volume. http://markets.wsj.com/usoverview#mod=mdc_topnav_2_3002 

Last month in our interview I warned that the market pattern of the equal weighted S&P was tracking the panic top pattern of the 1987 stock market top. Following is the chart comparison from that interview,

CHART 1

Here is an update of the above chart comparison. 

CHART 2

I said in the interview to watch Deutsche Bank and to watch for discount of the S&P futures to fair value for signs that the pattern was continuing.

Futures discounts to fair value did not develop, and the following chart shows DB turned up and was a warning that the chart pattern comparison was failing.

Chart 3

 

The following chart of the Nasdaq Composite shows what a tremendous bull market we have had since the 2009 low. 

The mere greatness of this bull market is itself a WARNING that after every bull market comes a bear market. 

WE NEED TO CONSIDER THAT ANY SHORT TERM PEAK MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE AND IMPORTANT MARKET TOP.

Chart 4

 

SO HOW DO WE IDENTIFY WHEN THIS MARKET MIGHT BE TURNING DOWN INTO THE NEXT BEAR MARKET?

 

There are many indicators to watch to see if the trend of the market strength is changing. One of the things I watch is the ratio of the advancing volume to the declining volume of the NYSE and NASDAQ.

WHEN THE DAILY RATIO OF DECLINING VOLUME OVER ADVANCING VOLUME IS GREATER THAN 1.5, FOR FOUR OR FIVE DAYS IN A ROW, I CONSIDER THAT A WARNING THAT THE RECENT PEAK MIGHT ACTUALLY BE AN IMPORTANT MARKET TOP.

The October 1973, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

 

CHART 5

 

The July 1976, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 6

 

The September 1976, market top was slow to started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 7

 

The September 1978, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 8

 

The February 1980, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 9

 

The April 1981, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 10

 

The August 1987, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 11

 

The July 1990, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 12

 

The January 1994, market top DID NOT start with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 13

 

The January 2000, market top DID NOT start with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 14

 

The May 2001, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 15

 

The February 2004, market top started with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 16

 

The October 2007, market top DID NOT start with a series of greater than one and a half to one declining volume days.

CHART 17

 

 

BOTTOM LINE: If you can't "predict" the market top, then watch the Advance Decline Volume to confirm that a recent peak might be a major top. 

 

Good luck and good trading!

George

 

 

 

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Sun Spot cycle background info 

 

youtube video on the next Mini Ice Age and CROP LOSSES.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?  v=AiHxJx0dawI

FOCUS ON PART TWO BEGINNING AT 36 MINUTES

Will we see crop losses starting in 2018?????

Other readings on the solar cycle:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/08/weak-solar-cycle-continues-the-sun-is-spotless-again/ Cycle 24 minimum by December 2018.

http://www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles.html 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljUg2D-vBak   Geologist Ian Plimer to the UK government

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 

 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u2/Biesecker2008.pdf 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-cycle-24-prediction-updated-may-2009 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/solar-cycle-25-amplitude-prediction/ 

http://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/on-the-recovery-from-the-little-ice-age/  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljUg2D-vBak

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/611671/ice-age-britain-freeze-climate-change-weather 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/mapping-worlds-population 

http://www.actforlibraries.org/relationship-between-sunspot-activity-and-crop-production/

 https://naldc.nal.usda.gov/download/CAT76674961/PDF 

https://www.briangwilliams.us/weather-change/the-sporer-minimum-dalton-minimum-and-maunder-minimum.html 

http://www.livescience.com/33345-solar-cycle-sun-activity.html 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1800_1849.htm 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles 

https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/category/solar-cycle-25/  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

http://www.stce.be/node/359 

 

 

 

The $49 per month subscription to the George Slezak web sites includes access to Commitments of Traders .com , and Stock Index Timing .com , where recommendations on the stock, bond and gold markets are made each week end considering the data in the COT Report. 

The $49 per month subscription is billed month to month to your credit card through PayPal, click here to subscribe.

 

 

 

All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.