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George
Slezak's www. Stock Index Timing .com Index
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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE |
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on December 20, 2007. ----------------- From Stock Index Timing .com UPDATE: INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN ELECTION YEARS I turned BULLISH on the market on Wednesday's close (12/19). I moved my managed mutual fund accounts (see managed program) from short funds to long funds. In my Stock Index Timing .com web site, every month or so I run a review of the current market's position relative to the Presidential election year. Below, I show the update of a special run through my Presidential Election year comparisons where I FOCUS ON NOVEMBER TO MARCH BEFORE THE ELECTION WHEN THERE WAS AN INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN. The election winner is not the focus. A Republican incumbent during the election year is the focus. My conclusion from looking at the following comparisons is that, based on 13 out of 16 positive December to March periods before the Presidential Election when a Republican is the incumbent, we should expect a firm market. The conclusion of this analysis last month, was that we could go to a low in November or December contrary to the expected seasonal strength. Now, this is part of my decision to look to support a BUY on the market. It looks like the low in November will stand and this retest will set up a possible powerful leg to the upside that could last at least a few months. Along with a neutral to friendly net commercial position in stock index futures by the hedgers that use stock index futures to hedge risk, another important part of my decision to move to a buy signal is the impact of the Fed and ECU on our financial companies. Simply put, when the Fed takes in collateral under their new plan, the Fed is "pricing" bonds that under a Sarbanes-Oxley view might not have been able to be priced. These prices will guide marks for all similar bonds. Possibly, these bonds might even be priced higher than the recent write down levels returning some precious capital. I think the Fed's move will close the current crisis in the financial companies. "If" the market makes a move in the next three months like the 2004, 1992, or 1976, 1972, 1956, 1928, 1924, 1912, or 1892 charts below, I think we could see new all time highs in the Dow in January or February! Good luck and good trading! George PS. You can see all election year charts back to 1888 in the above October 29, interview link. ============================================ In the following charts I have the coming Presidential election day centered in the chart and the current Dow is in RED. The comparison election year is centered in the bottom chart so the comparison election day matches the chart position of the 2008 election day. The winner of the election is noted in the box at the bottom right. Focus on the months of November to April of the comparison election year.
FOLLOWING ARE 16 CHARTS WHERE THE PRESIDENT DURING THE ELECTION YEAR WAS A REPUBLICAN.
============================================ 2004 R- Bush President Bush in office in 2003
============================================ 1992 D- Clinton President Bush in office in 1991
============================================ 1988 R - Bush President Reagan in office in 1987
============================================ 1984 R - Reagan President Reagan in office in 1983
============================================ 1976 D - Carter President Ford in office in 1975
============================================ 1972 R - Nixon President Nixon in office in 1971
============================================ 1960 D - Kennedy President Eisenhower in office in 1959
============================================ 1956 R - Eisenhower President Eisenhower in office in 1955
============================================ 1932 D - FDR President Hoover in office in 1931
============================================ 1928 R - Hoover President Coolidge in office in 1924
============================================ 1924 R - Coolidge President Harding in office in 1923
============================================ 1912 D- Wilson President Taft in office in 1911
============================================ 1908 R - Taft President T. Roosevelt in office in 1907
============================================ 1904 R - T Roosevelt President McKinley in office in 1903
============================================ 1900 R - McKinley President McKinley in office in 1899
============================================ 1892 D - Cleveland President Harrison in office in 1891
------------------- Good luck and good trading! George
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For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400, or email george@ georgeslezak.com All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING. All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
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