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George
Slezak's www. Stock Index Timing .com Index
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MARKET VIEWS .TV INTERVIEW CHART PAGE |
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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on September 22, 2007. ----------------- From Stock Index Timing .com First, I want to share my ENTIRE current weekly commentary from Stock Index Timing .com with your listeners. I posted a PDF of the commentary at the following link available without password - link to PDF of weekly commentary. Sometimes I get all gigglely with my own writing and just want to share it.
The title of my commentary this week is: My conclusion of the current market test of the July highs is that the GLASS IS HALF EMPTY. I actually got this idea going in my head when I sent you an email asking for this interview today. The email included the following chart comparison of the current Dow Jones Industrial Average and the current Russell 2000 "INVERTED." I know "everyone" now thinks the bull market has a new life, but if they look at the following chart, do they look like they are continuing DOWN - which would really mean they look like they are really going up? It is just turned upside down.
Here is the same chart as above, right side up. Does it look the same?
These aren't illusions. We just train ourselves to see the up trends because actually the market tends to be in up trends generally 65% of the time. The following chart is the current Dow - upside down, compared to the great retest bottom at the 2004 low. Can you see that the current top turned upside down looks like the retest bottom from 2004 and thus conclude that the current pattern might be a RETEST TOP?
In evaluating the retest top, my many technical indicators show this as a FAILING retest, from a technical point of view. I think we could have a lot of trouble int he market in the coming weeks.
From Stock Index Timing .com SPECIAL COMMENT ON THE SEPTEMBER TRIPLE WITCH EXPIRATION In my commentary this weekend, posted for you without password - link to PDF of weekly commentary I talk about how it looks to me like the futures expiration was a huge short opportunity for the firms, and in light of the way "they" made money on short mortgages while all of there best customer mortgage hedge funds lost huge amounts on their portfolios, my thinking was the equity hedge funds might consider this info and "wake up" before they go the way of the debt hedge funds. Obviously there are no "fiduciary rules" for the firms to follow when dealing with their hedge fund customers. The following is part of the page on CME.com for cash settlement of the S&P future http://www.cme.com/html.wrap/wrappedpages/clearing/contracts/CurrentCashSettles.htm?h=2
The highest "trading" price of the S&P all day long was 1530.89, but if you sold the opening print of every stock in the S&P (in proper weightings) you got 1533.38. Do you think the firms that shorted the basket on the open got a good price? would they mark the market down quickly on Monday to set a cushion so they can let their shorts run? Think we might see some selling into the end of the quarter next week? ---------------------------- From Commodity Index Timing .com and The Gold Bull .com (The Gold Bear .com) Follow up on our last few interviews on the Commodity Bubble: In our interviews in June, July, and August, I have been pointing out the similarity of the comparison of the last four years CRB Continuous Commodity Index to the four years going into the 1929 stock market top. I have suggested we could have a few more months of commodity market rally, and we have, but I offered caution that we could have a severe commodity market correction before the end of the year. The following chart is an update of the comparison of the long term chart of the CCI centered on the recent high compared to the stock market in the 1920's and 30's centered on the 1929 market high. I have added in the current Hang Seng market chart. This suggests the commodity bubble will burst concurrent with a burst in the China market. (I use this Yahoo link http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Ehsi first thing every morning to see if the China market took it in the neck yet. You might book mark it.)
------------------- Conclusion: I know. Everyone thinks I only see the glass half empty. I keep saying I warned everyone in 2000 about the NASDAQ bubble bursting. I warned everyone in 2005 about the real estate bubble bursting. Now I am warning everyone about the commodity bubble bursting. I have been trading commodities for over 25 years and I am NOT RECOMMENDING to short the commodities other than having some cheap gold puts. Commodity markets are just too volatile on the way down and commodity crashes are best left to the professional traders. Good luck and good trading! George
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For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400, or email george@ georgeslezak.com All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING. All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.
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