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The following charts are for reference to the interview of George Slezak by Ike Iossif of Market Views .TV on September 4, 2017.

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MARKET COMMENT 9/04/2017

 

THE COMING MARKET PANIC 

STOCK MARKET

CURRENCY MARKET

BOND MARKET

GOLD MARKET

 

The following chart of the CURRENT EQUAL WEIGHTED S&P 500 IS TRACKING THE PATTERN OF THE  1987 STOCK MARKET CRASH TOP.

CHART 1

 

COULD THE ETF DERIVATIVES MARKET 

CAUSE A MARKET CRASH?

The 1987 stock market panic and crash was in great part the result of the dysfunction of the market in the arbitrage between the stock index futures market and the other derivative markets.

In 1987, a majority of the derivatives market, mostly stock index options, were created by arbitrage between the Stock Index Futures and the options market. When the stock market pressure caused the stock index futures to trade at a 5% to 10% discount to value, holders of long futures against short other derivatives had tremendous margin calls and forced liquidation.

(In the 2009 panic the forced selling of CMO collateral caused underlying real estate security values to drop and, in a similar way to 1987, the holders were pushed in losses from forced liquidation.)

Now, the new ETF derivative market is bigger than any other derivative market in history. IF THE OVER VALUE CONDITION OF THE STOCK MARKET COMBINED WITH AGGRESSIVE INVESTOR SELLING TRIGGERS A WASH OUT DECLINE, WILL THE ETF MANAGERS BE ABLE TO PROCESS LIQUIDATIONS?

COULD TRADING HALTS CAUSE ETF DISCOUNTS TO VALUE AND ARBITRAGE FIRM INSOLVENCY?

When market pressure pushes ETF selling to discounts to underlying value, the arbitrage firms buy the discounted ETF and sell the underlying stocks. Then, at the close they deliver to the ETF manager closing the position and reducing the open ETF shares, or hold the positions overnight. If the ETFs close at extended discounts the arbitrage firms and ETF managers could run into capital problems.

What if significant stocks are not trading and the Arb cannot complete the basket for delivery?

What if the ETF manager is shut down from open position insolvency?

There are many checks in place to prevent market dysfunction, but in a decline from such a record overvalue condition, we just don't know what variables will break and cause a panic decline.

Could GLD BUYERS during a stock market panic cause a gold market panic?

COULD THE STOCK MARKET DYSFUNCTION CAUSE A STOCK MARKET ETF MANAGER TO DEFAULT ON  A LEVERAGED GOLD ETF, CAUSING A DYSFUNCTION IN THE GOLD MARKET?

 

DEUTSCHE BANK IS A MAJOR ETF MANAGER AND WATCHING THEIR STOCK PRICE MIGHT GIVE US INFO ON THE CONDITION OF THE TOTAL MARKET.

CHART 2

 

BOTTOM LINE: I expect any aggressive down day to be a sign that a panic pattern is developing. Watch DB. Watch for the S&P futures to move to deep discounts to fair value 

(Now, fair value is about $1 under the index. Watch for discounts, during the open market trading, of greater than $5.).

 

        GOLD

Panic physical gold buying?

       BONDS

Panic stocks could cause panic bond buying.

 

Have a nice day.

Good luck and good trading!

George

 

 

 

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reference to other interviews by Ike Iossif 
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Sun Spot cycle background info 

 

youtube video on the next Mini Ice Age and CROP LOSSES.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?  v=AiHxJx0dawI

FOCUS ON PART TWO BEGINNING AT 36 MINUTES

Will we see crop losses starting in 2018?????

Other readings on the solar cycle:

http://www.lunarplanner.com/SolarCycles.html 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljUg2D-vBak   Geologist Ian Plimer to the UK government

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml 

 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u2/Biesecker2008.pdf 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-cycle-24-prediction-updated-may-2009 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/solar-cycle-25-amplitude-prediction/ 

http://edberry.com/blog/climate-physics/agw-hypothesis/on-the-recovery-from-the-little-ice-age/  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljUg2D-vBak

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/611671/ice-age-britain-freeze-climate-change-weather 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/mapping-worlds-population 

http://www.actforlibraries.org/relationship-between-sunspot-activity-and-crop-production/

 https://naldc.nal.usda.gov/download/CAT76674961/PDF 

https://www.briangwilliams.us/weather-change/the-sporer-minimum-dalton-minimum-and-maunder-minimum.html 

http://www.livescience.com/33345-solar-cycle-sun-activity.html 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1800_1849.htm 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles 

https://cbdakota.wordpress.com/category/solar-cycle-25/  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html 

http://www.stce.be/node/359 

 

 

 

The $49 per month subscription to the George Slezak web sites includes access to Commitments of Traders .com , and Stock Index Timing .com , where recommendations on the stock, bond and gold markets are made each week end considering the data in the COT Report. 

The $49 per month subscription is billed month to month to your credit card through PayPal, click here to subscribe.

 

 

 

All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.